Psychological Pitfalls: Does Luck Run In Streaks?

One psychological myth that appears to be imbedded in the minds of many people is that luck always seems to run in streaks. This misguided notion spawns a strategy of continually increasing bets after wins and decreasing them after losses. On the other side of the coin, there is a "school of thought" many people subscribe to, which advocates increasing (usually doubling) bets after losing, and decreasing after wins. This is based on the misconception of the so-called "law of averages" which theorizes that sooner or later you would have to win.

Of course, this is known as the "Martingale" betting strategy, and can be the quickest road to ruin, since one can keep losing consecutive hands and soon be in excess of the house limit, at which point the strategy has been rendered completely useless, with no chance to make up for what has been lost.

Another variation on the "law of averages" involves the perception of the non-counting player that "a lot" of small cards just dealt would denote that "a lot" of big cards are on their way, of course leading to hunch plays which are based upon nothing but pure supposition. It gets to be very difficult for players to stick to a Basic Strategy without deviation, but for some it takes the fun out of the game. Personally, winning money - or having a real chance to win it - is a lot more fun than screwing yourself out of the game before a card is dealt, but to each his own.

Just remember where the psychological pitfalls are, and do your level best to avoid them.